Chinese demand to help offset declines in European solar market
June 28, 2012 Category Alternative energy, Environment
The world’s largest solar-panel makers are boosting production this year on expectations that demand in China will double, a surprise shift as the USD36 billion market migrates from Europe to Asia. The five biggest producers of polysilicon solar modules, led by China’s Suntech Power and Yingli Green Energy, will increase shipments 27% to 37% from last year’s levels, according to estimates by Bloomberg. Chinese demand will partially offset declines in Europe that are driving the industry towards its first global sales decline since at least 1999. China’s efforts to stimulate its photovoltaic industry at home and a 48% drop in panel prices in 2011 are boosting sales. China, which trails only Germany and Italy for new installations, is expected to dominate growth this year and become the top solar market in 2013, after European nations cut subsidies for new projects. The Chinese boom “will drive big shipment numbers from Chinese manufacturers, which are the only ones selling there,” said Sean McLoughlin, Vice President for Clean Technology Analysis at HSBC in London. Suntech Chief Executive Shi Zhengrong expects solar sales in China to exceed 4 GW this year, and Trina Solar’s CEO Gao Jifan expects 5 GW of installations. China’s market totaled 2.57 GW last year, almost 9% of worldwide sales, according to London-based research group New Energy Finance. China may install as much as 5.5 GW this year and the same amount next year while Germany may slide to 2.5 GW next year, the group estimates. The five top companies by shipments of silicon panels last year were Suntech, Yingli, Trina, Canadian Solar and Hanwha SolarOne. They expect combined sales of solar modules this year to range from 9.3 GW to 10.1 GW compared with 7.4 GW last year. The ranking excludes First Solar, which makes thin-film cells and expects a decline in shipments this year. Japan, the sixth-largest market in 2011, starts a new solar incentive program in July and may install more than 4.6 GW of solar panels next year, second after China, according to New Energy Finance. Saudi Arabia is seeking investors for a USD109 billion plan to create its own solar industry. Not all solar companies are projecting a surge this year. Jinko Solar, which ranked eighth in silicon-panel shipments last year, expects sales between 800 MW and 1 GW, which is about the same as 2011’s level of 950.5 MW. Chief Executive Chen Kangping still said he expected China to be a “very, very important market in 2012”. Suntech, the world’s largest panel maker, has the most conservative growth forecast of the top five. It expects shipments of 2.1 GW to 2.5 GW, compared with 2.1 GW last year, the South China Morning Post reports.
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