Economic stabilization confirmed by latest data
March 20, 2017 Category Macro-economy, Weekly
China’s industrial output in January and February rose 6.3% compared with the same period a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Fixed-asset investment (FAI) also strengthened, rising 8.9% in the first two months of the year. Property investment climbed 8.9% in the same period, accelerating by 2 percentage points from a year ago, while floor space sold jumped 25.1% year-on-year. Taken together with a 4% increase in exports in the first two months of 2017, these data confirm signs of stabilization compared with the second half of last year and eased worries that China’s growth may soon lose steam. Some leading financial institutions, including the China International Capital Corp (CICC) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have already lifted their full-year growth estimates for China. China’s fixed-asset investment was driven by infrastructure construction, which jumped 27.3% year-on-year in the first two months, almost double the pace in the same period last year. Private investment, which accounts for more than 60% of the total fixed-asset investment, grew 6.7% in January and February, accelerating from the annual increase of 3.2% in 2016 and marking the fastest growth since March 2016. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group said in a note that China’s first-half GDP may reach 6.6% to 6.7%, supported by investment in infrastructure and real estate. Retail sales, meanwhile, grew more slowly at 9.5% year-on-year, down from 10.4% for the same period last year. Foreign trade increased 20.6% year-on-year, compared with a 12.6% decrease in the same period last year.
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