Inflation is rising in China, credit growth slowing, exports falling
May 14, 2019 Category China News Round-up, Weekly
China’s consumer inflation continued to quicken last month to hit a six-month high, while factory-gate inflation also increased at a faster pace. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew 2.5% in April from a year earlier, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, to be the highest since October, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Pork prices increased by 1.6% mainly due to an epidemic of African swine fever. The increase was 14.4% year-on-year in April. “We believe the rapid spread of African swine fever since August 2018 could help push up pork prices by another 40% over the next six months,” said Lu Ting, Chief China Economist of Nomura. Food prices jumped 6.1% year-on-year in April, contributing to a 1.19-percentage-point rise in overall CPI growth. The price of vegetables and fruits remained high, surging by 17.4% and 11.9% year-on-year, respectively. The higher fruit prices were mainly due to the poor harvest in the northern area last autumn and the shortage of inventories this year. Non-food prices also rose by 1.7% year-on-year. The price of health care, education, culture and recreation, and residences advanced 2.6%, 2.5% and 2%, respectively.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by a stronger-than-expected 0.3% year-on-year in April, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month, mainly due to a low base and more expensive oil prices. Among upstream sectors, PPI inflation in the mining sector increased to 5.3% year-on-year in April from 4.2% in March, while in the processing sector, it rose to 0.9% from 0.4%.
China’s credit growth slowed in April after a strong March as new yuan loans and aggregate financing fell below expectations. April’s new bank loans amounted to CNY1.02 trillion, CNY161.5 billion less than in the same period last year, and a recent high of CNY1.69 trillion in March, according to data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The main issue was softer corporate borrowing, said UBS China’s research team. New household loans stayed steady at CNY526 billion last month, with over three quarters of the growth from demand for medium- and long-term loans, mainly mortgages. HSBC predicted that broad credit growth will likely continue to recover at a modest pace in the coming months and borrowing costs for corporations will likely continue to ease, the Shanghai Daily reports.
The Chinese economy is projected to grow steadily this year, with full-year GDP growth rate likely to reach 6.4% year-on-year, investment bank JPMorgan said.
China’s exports suffered a surprise fall in dollar terms in April, dropping by 2.7%, compared to a 14.2% rise in March. The decline was a surprise, with analysts having expected a 3% increase, according to a Bloomberg survey. Imports rebounded slightly in April by climbing 4%, reversing part of the 7.6% drop in March. The latest data from China’s General Administration of Customs also showed April’s trade surplus narrowed by USD18.8 billion to USD13.48 billion overall. China’s exports to the U.S. contracted 4.8% in January-April year-on-year, while imports from the U.S. declined 26.8%, leading to a trade surplus reaching CNY570.19 billion, up 10.5%.
In the first four months, private enterprises’ imports and exports totaled CNY3.9 trillion, up 11%, accounting for 41% of China’s total foreign trade, up 2.5% from the same period last year. Exports increased by 13.1% to CNY2.53 trillion, making up 49.9% of the total, while imports rose 7.3% to CNY1.37 trillion, accounting for 30.7% of overall imports.
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