The shift of manufacturing and outsourcing to China, which started after the country joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, has probably ended. But the scale of the move back to production in Europe and the Americas has been exaggerated, a senior shipping executive said. Andy Tung, Chief Executive of Orient Overseas Container Line, said: “China will still remain competitive, at least for a period of time.” “There is a supply chain infrastructure in China which is not easily replicated [in other markets’],” Tung told shipping executives at the Sea Asia conference in Singapore. Onshoring – the relocation of manufacturing back to countries closer to key Western markets – “is a bit overhyped”. Tung’s views were echoed by other container shipping industry executives. Teo Siong Seng, Managing Director of Pacific International Lines, said a meeting of company managers in Shanghai two weeks ago found some cargo production was returning to China after being shifted outside the country. This was because the total cost in terms of logistics and shipment reliability was cheaper in China. But Kenneth Glenn, President of Singapore’s APL, said: “I think Latin America is already [benefiting] and will continue to benefit from near-sourcing. Manufacturing in Latin America for North America and some domestic markets is clearly on the rise. The Middle East near-sourcing market is also developing.” The executives also voiced concerns about weak cargo growth, a possible oversupply of new ships and mounting environmental issues. Teo said intra-Asia container traffic had already outstripped transpacific volumes. He forecast that container volumes within Asia and between Asia and the Middle East would grow to six times current levels by 2030. “China will put more emphasis on trade between Asia and Africa,” he said. Thomas Riber Knudsen, Chief Executive of Maersk Line Asia Pacific, said the outlook for trade growth on Asia-Europe and transpacific routes remained gloomy. “There will be no return to a 5% trade growth,” he said. Instead, he forecast “low single-digit growth in the Pacific [this year], picking up in 2014”. He said the conditions facing container shipping were the “least bad” compared with the dry bulk or tanker markets, but that the sector was still fragile. Trade patterns were also changing, Riber Knudsen said. He said that in recent years 10% of container volumes from Asia to the U.S. east coast had gone via the Panama Canal. “By the end of this year, about half of all Maersk’s services will use the Panama Canal to the U.S. east coast,” with about 50% via Suez, he said, as reported in the South China Morning Post.