Sales of new energy vehicles are expected to see renewed momentum in China, with passenger electric vehicles accounting for 57% of NEV sales by 2040 and electric buses for 81% of sales of city buses, according to a new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The report added that that due to government support and surging demand, by 2025, China will account for 48% of the global EV market with sales of roughly 4.8 million units. Subsequently, China’s market share is expected to drop to 26% by 2040 or 14.6 million EVs. However, it will still be the largest market in the world. Data from U.S.-based industry research website EV Sales showed that in the first quarter of this year, global EV sales surpassed 500,000 units, up 58% year-on-year, and China accounted for almost half of the sales.

“Led by China, the cumulative growth in global EV sales has been astonishing. We estimate that global sales will jump from 2 million in 2018 to 28 million in 2030, and 56 million in 2040. Meanwhile, sales of traditional energy cars will decline from 85 million in 2018 to 42 million in 2040. In the next five to seven years, China’s policy support for new energy vehicles will drive global growth,” said Kou Nannan, head of research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. China will specifically lead in the e-bus market. It is estimated that by 2025, China’s e-bus fleet share will reach 50%, and by 2040, the ratio will rise to roughly 80%.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that EVs will attain price parity by the mid 2020s. From 2010 to 2018, lithium battery prices dropped by over 85%, with an annual average decline of 20%, which is estimated to continue for the next few years. “The fall in lithium battery prices is the primary impetus for the development of the EV industry,” Kou from Bloomberg New Energy Finance said, as reported by the China Daily.