Trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are to resume on March 28 and 29 in Beijing, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer leading the U.S. delegation to the 8th round of high-level consultations. In early April, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to travel to Washington for follow-up sessions. However, it is far from certain that a breakthrough is imminent. U.S. President Donald Trump has said that even if a deal is reached, tariffs would be kept in place “for a substantial period of time” to force China to implement its commitments, a measure China will certainly reject. China, historically, had had “a lot of problems living by certain deals, and we have to make sure”, Trump said.

Wei Zongyou, a specialist in China-U.S. relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the upcoming back-to-back negotiations were indicative of the two sides’ “willingness to narrow the distance between their positions”. “But the U.S. has constantly emphasized the verification mechanism and use of punitive tariffs as a counterweight,” he said. “Even if they do reach an agreement there will still be contradictions and differences on trade issues that will require them to continue interactions, negotiations and compromise.” Lighthizer told a U.S. Senate Finance Committee that he hoped the two countries were “in the final weeks of having an agreement” – the two sides had exchanged drafts of a 110 to 120-page document, he said – but stressed there were still major unresolved issues that could derail it.

Despite Trump’s demands, Allan von Mehren, China Economist at Danske Bank in Copenhagen, said that with an election looming, the U.S. President was equally keen to strike an agreement. “I doubt Trump will say no to a deal, as this could trigger turmoil in financial markets,” he said. “He also really wants this deal as it will be a big gift to key voters in swing states. He has his eyes set on the 2020 election now and the campaigning will starting very soon.”