China’s meat imports expected to skyrocket
May 26, 2014 Category Foreign trade, Weekly
China’s meat imports are predicted to skyrocket over 3,500% to USD150 billion by 2050 as consumption of chicken, pork and beef surges. The massive increase was forecast by the Australian government’s agricultural research arm, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resources Economics and Sciences. “The shift from a rice to meat diet has already happened in China. Even small changes in the way China consumes can have a large impact overseas,” said Patrick Vizzone, Asia head of food and agribusiness at National Australia Bank. Between now and 2050, China would represent more than 40% of the increase in world food demand. If China switched just 2% of its pork consumption to imports, this would equal 10% of the U.S. market and three times Australia’s pork production, Vizzone said. For now, China produces nearly all of its own meat. Its output of pork, poultry, and beef rose from about 20 million tons in 1986 to more than 70 million tons in 2012, with the fastest growth from the 1980s into the early ’90s, a U.S. Department of Agriculture report said. The USDA was projecting an increase in China’s pork, poultry, and beef output to 90 million tons by 2023/24, an increase of about 30%. “Since about 3 kg of feed are needed to produce each kilogram of meat, feeding a large and increasing population of animals will be a growing challenge”, it said, with serious implications for the trading of grains such as corn and soya beans used to feed livestock. The USDA report said China’s soya bean imports were expected to reach over 70% of the global total by 2023/24, while China’s corn imports were projected to rise to 22 million tons by then. China is expected to account for 40% of the rise in the global corn trade over the coming decade, and the report said the USDA expected China to become the leading importer of corn by 2023/24, the South China Morning Post reports.
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