China and U.S. still disagree on yuan exchange rate
May 31, 2010 Category Macro-economy, Weekly
Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that bringing the yuan’s value up by 40% could generate some 1.2 million U.S. jobs, going a long way towards meeting U.S. President Barack Obama’s recent pledge to create two million jobs, while doubling exports over the next five years. Chinese policymakers insist that adjustments in the yuan’s value will have little direct impact on the trade balance with the U.S., adding that its nearly 15% gain against the euro is already too great a burden. “A revaluation would not bring any good to our economy, as our exporters already are under heavy cost pressures. It would be dangerous to revalue,” said Yi Xianrong, Economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. Others are in favor of loosening exchange rate controls. “A more flexible currency rate will do good to both ourselves and the world economy,” said Economist Mao Yushi. Economist Zhang Bin forecast that a 10% rise in the yuan’s value would cause a 3.3% drop in exports, posing no great threat. Not all American companies favor pushing for a stronger yuan. Executives of multinationals with big operations in China tend to favor keeping currency rates steady. “The stable yuan is obviously easier for managers to cope with,” said Kevin Wale, President of General Motors China Group, which sources 85% of its parts locally. For many Chinese firms, adjusting to a stronger yuan would involve trying to climb the “value chain” to produce more expensive products or by selling more inside China. But for most exporters, going local is tough given the fierce competition from both Chinese and foreign companies fighting for a piece of the market, the South China Morning Post reports.
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