China’s economic growth expected to slow down
April 30, 2012 Category Macro-economy, Weekly
China’s economic growth will slow to anywhere between 7.5% and 8.5% this year, a marked slowdown from the 10.3% average in the past decade, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The credit rating agency said the government’s Aa3 foreign and local currency bond ratings remained the same as did its “positive” rating outlook even though the euro-zone recession was dragging on. The rating – the same as Belgium, Chile, Japan and Saudi Arabia – is based on favorable medium-term economic growth prospects and the central government’s ample fiscal headroom to manage contingent risks in the banking system, it said. Moody’s forecast on China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year compares with the 8.1% to 8.6% range predicted by seven brokerages polled by the South China Morning Post. GDP in the first quarter tapered off to 8.1% year on year from an 8.9% rise in the fourth quarter of last year. Moody’s said the central government’s decision to launch a new wave of financial reforms was necessary to sustain economic growth for the rest of the decade. Recent reform initiatives included a pilot scheme to legalize private financing firms to lend money in Wenzhou; widening the U.S. dollar-yuan trading band; and tripling the quotas available for institutional investors looking to sink cash into the securities market. Credit ratings agency Fitch said U.S. manufacturers recorded slower growth in China in the first quarter.
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