Economic slowdown larger than expected
March 31, 2014 Category Macro-economy, Weekly
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 48.1 in March from February’s final reading of 48.5. The latest figure was the lowest since August. “The March reading shows that the magnitude of the economic slowdown is larger than expected, and the weakness is not merely driven by Lunar New Year distortions,” Zhu Haibin, Chief Economist for China at JPMorgan, said. The production reading dropped from February’s 48.8 to 47.3 in March, the lowest reading in 18 months, while new orders fell by 1.7 points to 46.9, the lowest in eight months. The only silver lining was that new export orders rose to 51.4, the highest reading since December 2012 and compared with 48.5 in February. Qu Hongbin, Chief Economist for China at HSBC, expects measures to be unveiled to stabilize growth. “Likely options include lowering entry barriers for private investment, targeted spending on subways and public housing, and guiding lending rates lower,” Qu said. Pessimism deepened after China announced that industrial production growth eased to 8.6% in January and February – a five-year low – and down from 9.7% in December. Fixed-asset investment (FAI) rose 17.9% in the first two months, the slowest since 2002, while retail sales growth softened to 11.8%, the weakest since 2005, the Shanghai Daily reports. First-quarter GDP growth is likely to fall below the annual growth target of 7.5%, according to HSBC.
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