Foreign trade growth will slow down quarter after quarter, with exports increasing 16.3% on an annual basis in the second half, and imports advancing 19.3%, according the latest forecast by the State Information Center (SIC) under the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). This contrasted with the expansion of 35.2% for exports and 52.7% for imports in the first half. China’s trade has recovered to the 2008 level prior to the outbreak of the global financial crisis. In the first half, China’s trade surplus fell 42.5% from a year earlier to USD55.3 billion. In March, China even reported a trade deficit after a strong jump in imports. The expected slower growth in exports has been attributed to a volatile economic recovery in the United States and the European Union, China’s largest export destinations. Other factors included the decision to scrap a value-added-tax rebate on 406 types of exports on July 15 and Europe’s continuing sovereign debt problem. The State Information Center’s export forecast was between the 24% growth estimate by UBS, the 22% growth forecast by Morgan Stanley and an 18% increase of Barclays Capital. Exports fell 16% last year under the weight of the global financial crisis.