Most of China’s provinces and administrative regions have set their GDP growth targets above 6% this year, signaling confidence to achieve further economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic. Among the 31 provinces and regions that have announced economic growth targets for 2021, Hubei province, which was hit hardest by the coronavirus last year, and Hainan province, where China is building a high-level free trade port, have both set goals above 10%. Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong province set growth targets of “above 6%” for 2021, up from a goal of “about 6%” the previous year. The top three provinces and regions achieving the highest economic growth rates in 2020 – Tibet, Guizhou and Yunnan – vowed to continue growth at 8% to 9% this year.

China usually reveals its national GDP growth target at the annual sessions of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in the first half of March, but some analysts do not expect a target to be revealed at this year’s two sessions. Wu Chaoming, Chief Economist at Chasing Securities, said that all Chinese provinces will be able to achieve a growth above 6% this year based on the low base last year and that 2021 will be a “big year” for China’s economy. “The targets have been conservative, and I believe they can be achieved for certain,” he said, predicting that China could achieve GDP growth of about 8.5% this year.

According to Wu, domestic GDP growth should surge, particularly in the first half of the year, as China’s manufacturing can still benefit from rising overseas demand as a result of a pandemic-triggered production standstill in foreign countries. China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January stood at 51.3  – the  11^th consecutive expansion. In addition, the country’s “stay put” policy, which asked people not to travel during the weeklong Spring Festival holidays, will also boost manufacturing and exports as many migrant workers continued to work to earn extra bonus, Tian Yun, Vice Director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, told the Global Times. Vaccines and other medical supplies are expected to become a mainstay of Chinese exports this year. Chinese customs reported exports of CNY438.5 billion worth of medical supplies from March to the end of 2020, including 224.2 billion face masks worth CNY340 billion, helping China’s exports rise 3.6% in dollar terms in 2020, the Global Times reports.